Collectible-market headlines love a multimillion-dollar sales price. Whether it’s a $195 million Andy Warhol painting, a $24 million Babe Ruth jersey or a $6 million comic book, those headlines have been abundant in recent years. However, the prices alone rarely tell the whole story. The true lessons for collectors lie in the factors that drove competitive bidding or in the tectonic shifts that produced the headline.
Over the past few months, several newsworthy developments have commanded collectors’ attention. A few of those, though, present highly consequential implications for collections worldwide. Let’s make sense of them for collectors and their advisers alike.
Shohei Ohtani's 50th home run ball sells for $4,392,000.
What happened: In September, the Los Angeles Dodgers star became the first Major League Baseball player to reach 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a single season. The ball Ohtani launched into the stands to reach the milestone sold at Goldin last month for $4,392,000, establishing a record for any baseball.
Why it matters: While the massive dollar value is a strong signal for the continued appeal of high-end, contemporary baseball memorabilia, the real story here is who bought it. Goldin reported that the Taiwanese investment firm UC Capital was the winning bidder, besting competitors from three other countries. Ohtani boasts uniquely global appeal, but the growing international interest in cultural memorabilia is not exclusive to the Japanese superstar.
The collector’s takeaway: As collectors prepare to divest items from their collections, they should ensure that their auction house or marketplace of choice can reach international audiences where relevant. Otherwise, they may be leaving money on the table. In the auction world, each additional competitive bidder can add dramatically to the final sales price, and not all potential bidders live in the United States.
Art Basel and UBS release the 2024 Survey of Global Collecting
What happened: In partnership with Art Basel and UBS, Arts Economics published the results of its annual survey of over 3,660 high-net-worth (HNW) art collectors. The report serves as a barometer of high-end collector sentiment.
Why it matters: There are numerous relevant data points for collectors and their advisers to digest.
- Art allocations have shrunk. The average allocation to art among respondents fell from 24% in 2022 to 19% in 2023 and 15% in 2024. The reduction comes amid a softer art market and attractive competing options for capital.
- Estate planning is a work in progress. 51% of respondents said they hoped to bequeath art to their children without yet having a plan in place, fewer than those with such a plan (43%).
- The market outlook is tepid, with an exception. 43% of HNW collectors reported hoping to buy a work in the next 12 months versus 55% hoping to sell. In prior years, more than half of respondents hoped to buy. However, in mainland China, 70% expressed an interest in buying versus only 33% hoping to sell.
The collector’s takeaway: Collector sentiment remains subdued. Collectors have bemoaned the market’s recent lack of momentum, contributing to its lethargy by abstaining from participation. Similarly, the relative eagerness to sell into weakness appears to demonstrate flawed investor psychology. We believe collectors should be as wary of those destructive tendencies with their collections as they are with their equities.
Longer term, collectors still have significant work to do in estate planning. We urge high-net-worth collectors to pursue collection-centric conversations with their families and trusted advisers to ensure efficient transition or disposition of assets in accordance with the desires and needs of collectors and heirs.
Heritage sells $21 million in ‘Game of Thrones’ memorabilia, including $1.5 million Iron Throne
What happened: In partnership with HBO, Heritage Auctions conducted a “Game of Thrones” auction event in October, selling a vast assortment of costumes, props and set pieces. The show’s popularity drove $21 million in sales across more than 900 lots, with 32 lots reaching six-figure territory. None resonated better than the Iron Throne — or at least the replica version used for promotional appearances. It sold for $1.49 million.
Why it matters: While entertainment memorabilia is a long-established category, this magnitude and depth of high-end activity is a relatively nascent phenomenon. For one franchise to deliver dozens of $100,000 items in a single event is remarkable — not long ago, those results would have been a good year for television and movie memorabilia. Now, a mere replica of a desirable item can fetch prices previously reserved only for fine art, as deep-pocketed collectors raise their paddles not just for Warhol and Basquiat but for culturally relevant figures like Kobe Bryant, Superman and John Snow.
The strength of results also speaks to the importance of HBO’s involvement and the associated direct provenance.
The collector’s takeaway: Millennial collectors may not follow the same well-trodden path of their predecessors into fine art. Rather, they might be willing to pay fine art prices for cultural memorabilia from meaningful or nostalgic entertainment and sports franchises.
These generational shifts will reshape collectible markets. Collectors should consider the demographic appeal of their collections as it pertains to their future marketability. Once again, we also emphasize the importance of engaging families in discussions about collections. Understanding a collection’s desirability (or lack thereof) to the next generation will inform several important estate planning considerations.