The biggest short-term risks to the global economy stem from misinformation and disinformation, with climate-related threats dominating the longer-term outlook.
The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2024, published Wednesday, said the "disruptive capabilities of manipulated information are rapidly accelerating, as open access to increasingly sophisticated technologies proliferates and trust in information and institutions deteriorates."
The WEF report warned that such manipulation of information "may radically disrupt electoral processes in several economies over the next two years" — highlighting also that 2024 is a busy year for elections across the globe.
"In the next two years, a wide set of actors will capitalize on the boom in synthetic content, amplifying societal divisions, ideological violence and political repression — ramifications that will persist far beyond the short term," the report said.
The growing concern about misinformation and disinformation is largely driven by the potential for artificial intelligence, "in the hands of bad actors, to flood global information systems with false narratives."
Governments are already rolling out regulation to target hosts and creators of online disinformation and illegal content, and developing rules around generative AI will likely complement those efforts, the WEF said.
"Generally, however, the speed and effectiveness of regulation is unlikely to match the pace of development,” the report said. “Synthetic content will manipulate individuals, damage economies and fracture societies in numerous ways over the next two years. Falsified information could be deployed in pursuit of diverse goals, from climate activism to conflict escalation.”
The warning comes just one day after the Securities and Exchange Commission’s social media account on the X — formerly Twitter — platform was hacked to falsely announce that the regulator had approved spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. SEC Chair Gary Gensler sent out a message on his own account minutes later denying the approval, adding that the SEC's account had been "compromised."
The WEF report also highlighted a world that is "plagued by a duo of dangerous crises: climate and conflict. These threats are set against a backdrop of rapidly accelerating technological change and economic uncertainty."
Over the longer term, with a 10-year time horizon, extreme weather events topped the list of concerns, followed by critical change to Earth systems and biodiversity loss. Extreme weather was also the top risk that's expected to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024, according to the report.
The survey — conducted in September among 1,500 global experts from academia, business, government, the international community and civil society — found that 54% of respondents expected some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes, while 30% expect conditions to be more turbulent.
Over a 10-year time horizon, almost two-thirds of respondents have "a stormy or turbulent outlook," the report said.
The biggest short-term risk in the 2023 report was the cost-of-living crisis, with misinformation and disinformation coming in at 16th place. The biggest long-term risk was failure to mitigate climate change. Extreme weather events came third in the list of long-term concerns.